Texas Father's Day Flood 2018 - Major Tropical Trouble

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The NWS puts the development chance of this system at 10%.
There are 34 active Volcanoes in Guatemala right now.
Texas & parts of the Gulf Coast will see a problematic amount of rainfall.

God bless everyone,
T


good links to track info

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
https://earth.nullschool.net/
https://www.windy.com/
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/movie
http://www.spaceweather.com/
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml
https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mpeg/

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THORNEWS
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thornews recommended

@Crankywxguy on twitter
CrankyWXguy Blog (Recommended for ALL always)
http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e061518.htm

the Wave Master @Dadabuh on twitter
https://dabuh.com/

Brooks Garner @BrooksKHOU on twitter

THORnews Volcanic Variables:

34 Active Volcanoes
Fuego Volcano has had 2 major eruptions
(the 2nd eruption happened after government
said the volcano wouldn't erupt agin anytime soon)
Pyroclastic Flow = Gray Mud that is 1300 degrees

Heats Gulf of Mexico like a bathtub.

Hawaii Kileau Volcano

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/downpours-to-threaten-flooding-in-texas-louisiana-as-potential-tropical-system-brews-in-gulf/70005204

Tropical downpours to threaten flooding in Texas, Louisiana

Tropical downpours may lead to flooding and travel problems in parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend to early next week.

A tropical disturbance associated with a plume of showers and thunderstorms that began to brew over the western Caribbean last weekend is forecast to migrate northwestward this weekend into early next week.

"The disturbance is highly unlikely to develop," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"However, this disturbance will cause flooding rainfall to progress slowly inland from the western part of the Gulf coast starting later this weekend," Kottlowski said.

Risk of heavy rainfall, flooding to expand later Sunday through Tuesday

Enough rain is likely to fall to cause incidents of urban and low-lying area flooding, especially in the swath from Houston, southward to Brownsville, and inland to Austin and San Antonio, Texas.

Motorists in the major metropolitan areas such as Houston, Dallas, Port Arthur, Victoria, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, San Antonio and Austin, Texas, as well as Lake Charles, Louisiana, should anticipate travel difficulties by the start of next week.

The Monday commutes could be a mess along parts of the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. More widespread problems may occur from coastal and central Texas to western Louisiana by Tuesday.

Motorists are reminded never to drive through flooded roadways as the water may be deeper than it appears and the road surface compromised beneath the water.

Slow-moving tropical downpours have the potential to unload localized rainfall on the order of 6 inches or more where showers and thunderstorms repeat. Should even a tropical depression or weak tropical storm form, rainfall could be even heavier in some communities.

Static AP Harvey Bayou Widening Project Houston

Construction workers excavate and widen Brays Bayou as part of a nearly $500 million flood control project Thursday, March 22, 2018, in Houston. The project, which will widen 21 miles of the bayou and build stormwater detention basins. The project is one of several large-scale flood control projects Houston-area officials are hoping to fully fund and build. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)


While much of the rain may fall on Father's Day weekend when many people may have outdoor plans, rainfall is needed over much of the region.

Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions exist over much of Louisiana and central and southeastern Texas, according to the latest United States Drought Monitor. Severe drought exists in some counties of Texas as well.

Movement of the batch of tropical downpours is uncertain beyond this weekend.

On one hand, the rain may be drawn northward across the Plains and part of the Mississippi Valley.

However, another scenario is possible.

"There is a chance the system stalls over southern Texas and northeastern Mexico for several days next week," according to AccuWeather Lead Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.

Another Harvey is not expected

Even though the area of disturbed weather is originating from the western Caribbean Sea and may organize just off the South Texas coast, a repeat of Harvey is not anticipated with this event, despite the chance of rain farther south and west.